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ENSEMBLES RT7: Scenarios

Aims | Partners | WP7.1 | WP7.2 | WP7.3 | WP7.4 | Meetings

Last updating: January 14th, 2009

Aims

• To provide global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land use change and adaptive capacity, with and without international climate policy (WP7.1)
• To test the sensitivity of these scenarios to the impacts of climate change (WP7.2)
• To develop interfaces between climate change impact models and demographic and economic models (WP7.3 and WP7.4)

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RT7 - Partners

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WP7.1 Provision of scenarios of emissions, land use, and adaptive capacity
Partners: SMASH-CIRED (leader),UNI-HH, FEEM, IIASA, MNP, CICERO

Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions are the basis of the integrated climate change scenarios that are the centrepiece of the proposed IP. Such scenarios consist of two major components –energy and land use – and are driven by population growth, economic development, and technological progress. Rather than developing a new set of emissions scenarios, we will work with the SRES family of scenarios, taking recent criticisms into account. The latest versions of the six SRES scenarios will be run with the latest versions of the integrated assessment models at IIASA, UNI-HH, FEEM, SMASH-CIRED, CICERO and MNP to create an ensemble of emission scenarios. These models have been developed in various project, including EUprojects such as INASUD, NEMESIS/ETC, TranSust. Where possible, we will use the recently released greenhouse gas emissions in the GTAP5 database, a substantial improvement in both resolution and quality with regard to the now commonly used GTAP-E database. The results will be made available to RT2A in an early stage of the project so that the computationally intensive experiments can commence.
The models at IIASA and MNP include land and water use as well as energy. Based on the same set of drivers as above, these models will be used to generate scenarios of land and water use (for RT6) and to estimate concomitant changes in greenhouse gas emissions (for RT2A).
Based on work in the IPCC, we will use the same models to run the family of post-SRES mitigation scenarios so as to make available an ensemble of atmospheric stabilisation scenarios. This will be done with the same models as above, in the first phase of the project.
The impact of climate change depends on the nature of climate change, the structure of the economy, particularly the dependence on natural resources, and the adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity obviously depends on the technological and economic resources that a society can mobilise to protect itself against potentially negative consequences and to take advantage of potentially beneficial effects. However, adaptive capacity also depends on such issues as the quality and efficacy of government, risk sharing and insurance, and information flows and credibility.
In the recent literature, adaptive capacity has evolved from a qualitative concept to a more quantitative tool for describing and predicting vulnerability ( Yohe and Tol, 2002). We will use existing definitions of adaptive capacity and compute its values consistent with the basic scenarios for demographic and economic development of W7.1. This will be based on the research in the FP5 project DINAS-Coast, and the German project Security Diagrams.

Tasks
Task 7.1.a: Providing an ensemble of updated SRES scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and land use change without climate change policy.
Task 7.1.b: Providing an ensemble of SRES-based scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and land use change with climate change policy.
Task 7.1.c: Providing SRES-based scenarios of adaptive capacity.

Deliverables
D7.1 Ensemble of adapted IPCC scenarios of greenhouse gas
D7.1b A critical assessment of the SRES scenarios
D7.1c A review of the baseline scenarios that have emerged since the SRES, and the selection of one scenario, based on that which gives the most new scientific information over and above the SRES scenarios, to be made available for the ENSEMBLES Stream 2 simulations
D7.9 Revision of emission scenarios on the basis of climate change impacts, including the E1 stabilisation scenario.

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W7.2 Testing the sensitivity of scenarios to climate change
Partners: FEEM (leader),UNI-HH, IIASA, SMASH-CIRED

Current scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions are largely based on recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium models of the economy, which have substantial detail in the energy sector. In order to estimate the effects of climate change on the size and structure of the economy, and therefore on land use and emissions, in a way that is internally consistent with the emission scenarios, we will need to expand these models, particularly the models at FEEM and SMASH, by adding details in those economic sectors that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, such as health, agriculture, water, and tourism.
Estimating the effect of health impacts on emissions requires that the economic models are tightly coupled to demographic models and that education is modelled explicitly as an engine of growth. Including education is also important because we will strive to make growth as endogenous as possible. The third component of this effort is to explicitly model technological innovation and its diffusion over sectors and countries; here, the work will be based on a series of previous EU projects, the most recent of which is NEMESIS/ETC.
The models will also be used to drive land use scenarios (used in RT6), and to investigate economic implications of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and water resources. Therefore, where possible, we will use the maximum resolution in agriculture (8 crops, pasture, forestry in GTAP5; unlikely to improve over the course of the project) and the maximum spatial resolution (66 countries and regions in GTAP5; GTAP6 will have a higher resolution, and will have an improved representation of land use).
Rather than building a grand new integrated model, we will focus on developing the appropriate interfaces to exchange information between models. Models will be hard-linked or even integrated only if necessary, but (iteratively) soft-linked where that is sufficient. Enhanced with their new interfaces, the scenario-generating models will be run to estimate the effect of climate change impacts, based on the ensemble of climate change scenarios generated by RT2A, on the size and structure of the economy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. This has been done with single sector growth models ( Fankhauser and Tol, 2002) and with static computable general equilibrium models for a single impact ( Darwin and Tol, 2001; Bosello et al., 2004; Berrittella et al., 2004; Bosello et al., 2004), but never for multiple impacts with a recursive-dynamic CGE for an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate change scenarios. The results will yield insight into the (lack of) robustness of long-term emissions scenarios.

Tasks
Task 7.2.a: Testing the sensitivity of scenarios of population growth to climate change.
Task 7.2.b: Developing a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model with the appropriate specification for scenario generation and climate change impact testing.
Task 7.2.c: Extending the dynamics of the CGE with technological progress and education.
Task 7.2.d: Extending the specification of the energy sector of the CGE.
Task 7.2.e: Extending the land and water use sectors of the CGE.

Deliverables
D7.2 Ensembles of emission abatement scenarios
D7.3 Scenarios of adaptive capacity
D7.4 Two modelling systems for estimating climate change feedbacks on scenarios

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WP7.3 Interfaces between climate change impacts and demographic models
Partners: LSTHM (leader), UNI-HH

The impacts of climate change on human population health are one of the main reasons of concern about the enhanced greenhouse effect. We will provide estimates of the excess attributable burden in terms of mortality and morbidity (and a combined metric such as the DALY). This work package will additionally focus on demographic effects and labour supply and productivity. We aim to develop global and regional health impact models to estimate the impacts of climate change, with consideration of changes in adaptive capacity (WP7.2), for a range of health outcomes, viz. vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, heat and cold stress and, if possible, the health impacts of floods, storms and malnutrition. Global impact models have been developed for the WHO Global Burden of Disease assessment and regional impact models for Europe for the FP5 project cCASHh. We will also use the health impact model of ZMK, as well as the models used in RT5 and RT6.
The demographic effects will be estimated with the demographic model used in WP7.3 from estimates of the number of people who die prematurely because of climate change, specific for age and gender. Impacts on labour productivity, by age and gender, will be estimated due to changes in environmental and occupational exposures. Cost of illness will be taken from the FP4 and FP5 ExternE projects, and translated to an increase in the demand for health care ( Bosello et al., 2004).

Tasks
Task 7.3.a: Estimating the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country, age, and sex.
Task 7.3.b: Estimating the impact of climate change on water-borne diseases; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country, age, and sex.
Task 7.3.c: Estimating the impact of climate change on cardiovascular and respiratory disorders; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country, age, and sex.
Task 7.3.d: Estimating the impact of climate change on malnutrition.
Task 7.3.e: Estimating the impact of climate change on storm and flood injuries.
Task 7.3.f: Estimating the impact of climate-change-induced morbidity and mortality on labour productivity and education.

Deliverables
D7.5 A set of health impact interfaces for climate change impact models

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WP7.4 Interfaces between climate change impacts and economic models
Partners: UNI-HH (leader), FEEM, CICERO

The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. In WP7.4, we look at those impacts that may have an impact on economic development, be it in the size of the economy, its structure, or the location of economic activities. Particularly interesting are sea level rise, tourism, energy consumption and energy production; agriculture, forestry and water resources are part of RT6. We emphasize that we will not study climate change impacts for its own sake; rather, we will make climate impact models (or reduced forms, or results) available to the scenario-generating models of WP7.1 . It is therefore particularly important to express impacts as a function of climate change as well as development, and to express impacts in a manner compatible with the scenario-generating models.
Sea level rise will have significant impacts on the coastal zone, where a substantial share of the population and economy is concentrated. These impacts include a loss of productive land, through erosion and salt intrusion, an increased risk of floods and storm surges, and a diversion of productive investment towards defensive expenditures for sea walls and so on. Based on research in the FP5 DINAS-Coast project, detailed estimates will be made available and presented in a manner that is meaningful to the economic models of WP7.1.
Tourism and recreation strongly depend on climate. Whereas tourists can freely choose, within their budget constraints, the climate that best suits their planned activities, suppliers of tourist facilities have to make do with their natural endowments (however much enhanced). Climate change, and concomitant changes in vegetation, may well lead to tremendous shifts, in space and season, of leisure behaviour ( Lise and Tol, 2002). Based on research in a range of FP4 and FP5 projects, we will present changes in tourism supply and demand to the models of WP7.1.
Global warming would lead to an increased demand for air conditioning, and a reduced demand for space heating. The effect of weather variability on energy consumption (i.e., short term elasticities) is well-documented, but studies of the effect of climate change (i.e., long term elasticities) are scarce. We will review the existing empirical studies of climate change effects on energy demand, and supplement these with similar studies for missing countries so as to develop a representative, global sample. This will lead to energy demand being a function of climate in the models of WP7.1. Climate change will also affect energy production, particularly wind, hydro and solar power. We will translate the results of detailed engineering studies to the larger scale of the climate and economic models used in this project.
The impact of climate change on agriculture, forestry, water resources and land use are studied in RT6. Agriculture and water resources also play a role in the economy, however. We will translate the potential forest and crop yield changes of RT6 into supply functions and productivity shocks for use in the models of WP7.1.

Tasks
Task 7.4.a: Estimating the impact of climate change on energy consumption; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country and sector; expressing the impact as a demand shock.
Task 7.4.b: Estimating the impact of climate change on energy production; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country and sector; expressing the impact as a productivity shock.
Task 7.4.c: Estimating the impact of climate change on water resources; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country and sector; expressing the impact as productivity and supply shocks.
Task 7.4.d: Estimating the impact of climate change on tourism; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country and sector; expressing the impact as a productivity shock.
Task 7.4.e: Estimating the impact of sea level rise; expressing the impacts as a function of vulnerability and exposure; disaggregating the impact to country and sector; expressing the impact as productivity and supply shocks.

Deliverables
D7.6 A set of economic impact interfaces for climate change impact models
D7.7 Estimates of the effect of climate change on the emissions of carbon dioxide and sulphur aerosols
D7.8 Scientific publication on the direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity

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Meetings

• EMF22 First Meeting on Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and Transition, Brussels, November 10-12, 2004.
• Second Workshop on Integrated Climate Models, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, November 29-30, 2004
• IPCC Expert Meeting on Emissions Scenarios, Washington, DC, January 12-14, 2005
• Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change – A Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases, Exeter, February 1-3, 2005
• EMF22 Second Meeting on Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and Transition, Stanford, May 25-27, 2005
• CGE Fest 2005, Hamburg, June 13-17, 2005
• RT7 Internal Meeting, Venice, Italy, March 20-21, 2006
• 15th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Thessaloniki, Greece, June 26-July 1, 2007
  11th Annual Conferene on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland, June 12-14, 2008
• 3rd Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics - Climate Change Policies after 2012, A Toxa, Spain, July 4-5 2008
• Workshop on Socio-Economic Drivers of Climate Change, Venice, Italy, December 11-12 2008

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